35 Million U.S. Crypto Voters

"Crypto is moving out of the United States because of the hostility. If we're going to embrace it, we have to let them be here." - Donald Trump

Love him or hate him, Donald John Trump has recently profiled himself as a crypto-friendly presidential candidate, and seriously aims towards the November United States presidential election, occurring in 176 days.

In contrast to Trump, his key rival Joe Biden has taken a more critical stance towards cryptocurrencies. Biden has debunked the perceived benefits of crypto assets, opposed crypto "tax loopholes," and proposed regulatory measures such as a 30 percent tax on crypto mining electricity usage and increased capital gains taxes. Biden's administration has been increasingly anti-crypto, reflecting a more cautious approach towards digital assets.

The following list portrays US presidential candidates and their approach on cryptocurrencies.

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Democrats:

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (negative)

Jason Michael Palmer (neutral)

Marianne Deborah Williamson (neutral)

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Republicans:

Donald John Trump (positive)

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Independent and third-party:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (positive)

Jill Stein (neutral)

Cornel Ronald West (neutral)

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Meanwhile another candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK), has been talking about bitcoin as "freedom technology", and recently promised to put U.S. state budget into a public blockchain. RFK has also been talking at major crypto-related events.

Sources: Morning Consult, U.S. Global Investors

According to the recent data, a whopping 22 percent of US citizens own digital assets. During the previous presidential election of 2020, approximately 240 million people were eligible to vote and roughly 66.1% of them submitted ballots, totaling 158.43 million votes.

If we assume the turnout to remain same in 2024, the United States could have 34.9 million active crypto-related voters, forming a significant voter segment. Those candidates who can most effectively profile themselves as crypto-friendly will reap the benefits of this new segment.

Disclosure: 21metrics does not directly endorse any presidential candidate.

Why MiCA gives Europe a Regulatory Edge?

While the United States regulatory environment has been uncertain (and even hostile) during Biden's current term, the European Union has been offering stability, as a contrast.

The upcoming MiCA regulation gives EU an edge over the US due to several key factors highlighted in the regulatory framework. MiCA regulation concerning stablecoins will come into force on 30th of June and the rest of the MiCA on 30th of December 2024.

MiCA imposes strategic constraints on stablecoins, particularly those that could challenge the euro's dominance. This approach is in response to concerns about stablecoins threatening the power of the euro, especially after events like Facebook's attempted Libra issuance and the prevalence of USD-backed stablecoins.

While the EU is more concerned about stablecoins challenging the euro's dominance, the US prioritizes banking stability. This difference in focus leads to distinct regulatory approaches, with the EU aiming to safeguard its currency's position and the US concentrating on maintaining the stability of its banking system.

The MiCA regulation provides clear rules and guidelines for crypto companies operating within the EU, ensuring that they know in advance what is expected of them and where their responsibilities lie. This regulatory clarity enhances transparency and predictability for businesses in the EU crypto market.

The EU hopes that MiCA will set a global standard for crypto regulations. By establishing comprehensive rules for crypto firms, the EU aims to influence the global regulatory landscape and potentially shape how other regions approach cryptocurrency regulation.

Sell in May Phenomenon in Full Swing

The crypto market has clearly weakened during the second week of May, with bitcoin weakening by -3.6 percent. In a bigger picture, cryptocurrencies are now experiencing the famous sell in May effect, cyclically repeating during every spring.

Bitcoin might face a further leg down, bringing it to 50,000 US dollar level. However, following our thesis, the quarter two (Q2) and three (Q3) of 2024 might be an epoch of elevated spot prices. Bitcoin could mimic the year 2021 and form a similar double top structure.

Source: 21metrics

The next near term cycle box for bitcoin is called post-halving re-accumulation, representing a new price discovery phase in this environment. If the macro factors permit, we're aiming above and beyond 100 000 USD price levels in 2024-2025.

Fed and its interest rate cut schedule plays a big role in crypto price discovery, as the "cheap dollar" firstly benefits risk-on assets. During previous cycles, the low (or negative) interest rates have greatly elevated bitcoin and its higher beta low-cap token fellows.

Raoul Pal Forecasts a Liquidity Renaissance

From a long-term vantage point, the crypto market seems to follow Raoul Pal’s Exponential Age thesis, according to which technological development will accelerate the markets and change our perception of money. According to Pal’s latest analysis, global liquidity (M2) is at an inflection point and will recover towards the year of 2025.

Source: Global Macro Investor

According to Global Macro Investor, Pal's research company, the global liquidity is about to see a new renaissance, after years of downtrend. Historically the growing liquidity has been bullish for high beta assets like cryptocurrencies, as the "cheap dollar" flows into risk-on assets, uplifting valuations.

Plan ₿ Forum Offers Free Tickers to FOSS Developers

Lugano's Plan ₿ Forum, one of the leading yearly Bitcoin events, is now offering a limited number of sponsored tickets to free and open-source software developers.

The forum, is taking place in the Ticino canton of Switzerland next October. It offers a comprehensive repertoire of speakers and topics, ranging from decentralized ecosystems to institutions.

Source: Lugano’s Plan ₿

Lugano, dubbed a “Crypto Capital,” is at the forefront of the blockchain industry, as it has established the infrastructure for using bitcoin, USDT, and the city’s native LVGA token in all transactions.